Crime Gun Theft

Philip Cook, Duke University

Research Grant, 2015

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Only about 1 percent of all gun transactions in the US are thefts, and there is no evidence that theft is an important source of guns to those who use them to commit violent crimes. The analysis in support of this finding uses national and local data on the volume of gun theft and the sources of guns used in crime.

In particular, Chicago data suggests that only a tiny proportion of crime guns in that city were ever reported stolen to the Police Department. That and other evidence challenge the popular belief that gun theft is a major source of guns used in violent crime.  

There is no evidence that theft is an important source of guns to those who use them to commit violent crimes. 

The research draws on the best available evidence on how many guns are stolen each year in the US, and the extent to which these are then used to commit further offences.

The primary sources are the National Crime Victimization Survey (for data on gun theft from households); federal data on guns stolen from licensed dealers; police data on guns reported stolen to the Chicago Police Department; and national surveys of people convicted of felonies about how they obtained their guns.

On average, 232,400 guns were stolen nationwide between 2005 and 2010, and 251,300 guns between 2010 and 2014. Residential burglaries accounted for 58 percent of such thefts between 2005 and 2010, and the most common type of gun stolen was the handgun. These gun thefts constituted only about 1 percent of the 32 million annual gun transactions nationwide.

The Chicago Police Department reported that between 2010 and 2016, residents reported 473 guns stolen per year. Just half of the reports included a serial number and manufacturer name. In 2016, 84 (1.5 percent) of the stolen guns could be matched to one of the more than 5,600 crimes committed in Chicago that year. Taking account of the missing data, it is reasonable to conclude that 3 percent of recovered guns had been reported stolen in that city.