The July assassination attempt on President Donald Trump at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, shocked the world—in large part because attacks on public figures in the United States are relatively rare. Sadly, in many other nations, a similar incident of political violence—however awful and unwelcome—might feel far less exceptional. With support from The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, a team of researchers led by Laura Blume of the University of Nevada has begun compiling incidents of lethal violence against public figures in seven Central American nations between 2008 and 2022. Their goal is not only to gauge the full scope of violence against politicians, media workers, activists, and judicial officials, but also to gain insight into its character and causes. The early results of their Violence Against Public Figures (VAPF) dataset are stunning. In Honduras alone—a nation whose population is roughly the same as that of North Carolina—the VAPF has recorded the murder of nearly 650 public figures over just fifteen years.

“Hondurans entering the US without legal authorization do so because they are fleeing rampant corruption and danger, a lack of economic opportunities, and, increasingly, factors related to climate change, such as intensifying hurricanes and drought.”

There is a certain irony in President Trump’s brush with the kind of political violence that bedevils countries like Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. From its earliest days, the president’s political career has been centered on a critique of immigration, particularly from Mexico and Central America. He has offered a range of policy responses, from building a wall along the southern US border, to organizing mass deportations of people already living in the US.

But according to Blume, the kind of violence catalogued by the VAPF, and which Trump narrowly escaped in Pennsylvania, is a key driver of the immigration he seeks to resist. “Hondurans entering the US without legal authorization do so because they are fleeing rampant corruption and danger, a lack of economic opportunities, and, increasingly, factors related to climate change, such as intensifying hurricanes and drought,” Blume says. Implementing policies directed at these root causes—including political violence—would be far more effective at reducing unauthorized migration than building walls or forcing relocation, she says.

By aggregating the details about the violence it is recording, the VAPF has also highlighted an important distinction between the attack on Trump and political violence in Central America. The Pennsylvania gunman seems to have been a “lone wolf” without a clear motive. In contrast, most attacks on public figures in Honduras are carried out by violence specialists, including former or off-duty security officials, gang members, and professional hitmen. All too often, these malefactors are acting on orders from corrupt politicians, organized criminal groups, or business and economic elites.

“Violence against public figures—be they politicians, journalists, judicial officials, or social leaders—is known to have adverse ripple effects on society and governance.”

Given this etiology, reducing unauthorized immigration from this region would require US officials to pay more attention to these influential sponsors—and that, in turn, could necessitate radical changes in US policy. For example, during Trump’s first term, his administration touted Honduras’s then-President Juan Orlando Hernandez (JOH) as a key ally and provided him with extensive security aid. Since then, however, JOH has been extradited to the US for his role in cocaine trafficking, and he is now serving a forty-year sentence in a US prison. Investigative reporting has shown, moreover, that under JOH’s leadership, US military aid was not used to combat drug traffickers, but was instead wielded against political opponents.

Violence against public figures—be they politicians, journalists, judicial officials, or social leaders—is known to have adverse ripple effects on society and governance. By recording and collecting information about instances of lethal political violence, the VAPF is revealing the extent of this problem in Central America and exposing its causes. In doing so, Blume and her colleagues hope to illuminate a path toward greater stability and safety within those nations—which, in turn, could help stem the tide of immigration. It remains to be seen, however, whether US leadership has the political will to act on these findings.

This article is based on research by Laura Blume of the University of Nevada, Reno (Distinguished Scholar 2020-21) Cataloging Murder: Tracking Violence Against Public Figures in Central America.

This article was written by Robin Campbell, a writer and communications strategist based in Baltimore, Maryland. For more information about Campbell and his work, visit Catalyze,LLC.