The HFG Research and Policy in Brief The Impact of Climate Change on Conflict examines how climate variability and extreme weather events can lead to violence.

Written by Dr. Vally Koubi, a professor and senior scientist at the Center for Comparative and International Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich), the report lays out direct and indirect pathways to violence based on a deep survey of research on the topic.

“[W]hile climate change is not the primary driver of conflict, it can exacerbate conflict risks, particularly in regions with weak governance, high inequality, and political instability,” Koubi writes. “As extreme weather events become more frequent, the risk of conflict is likely to rise, driven by their effects on economic stability, agriculture, and migration. To mitigate these risks, strengthening political institutions, fostering social cohesion, and effectively managing migration will be crucial.”

The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation announces the selection of its 2025 HFG Distinguished Scholars. The ten awardees, chosen through a rigorous peer-review competition, are exploring important problems of violence in the world.

“This year’s recipients are quite varied in the violence problems they’re studying and the sites of that violence,” said Joel Wallman, Director of Research at HFG.​ “Supporting their work reflects the Foundation’s belief that reducing violence requires first understanding its causes. These researchers will substantially augment that knowledge.”

Read the full announcement here.

HFG launches its In Practice: Lessons from Research series with an article exploring how political violence, corruption and environmental conditions drive migration from Central America to the US. The article is based on research by 2021-2022 HFG Distinguished Scholar Laura Blume who compiled a Violence Against Public Figures dataset tracking assassinations in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

In Honduras alone, Blume’s team documented the murder of nearly 650 public figures over just fifteen years. “Hondurans entering the US without legal authorization do so because they are fleeing rampant corruption and danger, a lack of economic opportunities, and, increasingly, factors related to climate change, such as intensifying hurricanes and drought,” Blume says encouraging policymakers to address these factors to reduce unauthorized migration.

Read the article here.